Immigration Crackdown: A Costly Economic Strategy
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| How Trump’s Mass Deportation Plan Could Backfire on the US Economy and Shrink Paychecks |
According to the Penn Wharton Budget Model, deporting 10% of undocumented immigrants annually over a four-year period would reduce the United States’ GDP by 1% and expand the federal deficit by $350 billion. Over a decade, the projected deficit increase rises to $987 billion, with wages falling by 1.7% and GDP shrinking by 3.3%.
“There is no question the US economy will get smaller as you deport a lot of the workforce,” said Kent Smetters, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania. “Fewer people means a smaller economy.”
Who Wins and Who Loses
While low-skilled American workers may see a temporary wage increase due to reduced labor competition, the overall impact remains negative. The report shows authorized low-skilled workers could receive up to a 5% wage boost by 2034. However, this gain could reverse if deportation policies are rolled back.
In contrast, high-skilled workers would experience wage losses. These professionals — including native-born citizens, permanent residents, and visa holders with college education — rely on low-skilled labor to boost productivity. The study estimates an average $2,764 drop in annual wages for high-skilled workers over 10 years.
Key Industries at Risk: Agriculture, Construction, and More
Undocumented workers are vital to sectors like agriculture, construction, food service, and manufacturing. In farming alone, the US Department of Agriculture reports that 42% of crop farmworkers between 2020 and 2022 lacked legal work authorization. Without this labor force, employers could face major shortages and rising operational costs — costs that may be passed on to consumers.
White House Pushback and Labor Market Concerns
The Trump administration has rejected these findings, pointing to the social and fiscal burdens of illegal immigration. White House spokesman Kush Desai cited rising housing costs, overcrowded emergency rooms, and crime as key concerns. He emphasized the untapped potential of young Americans not currently employed or enrolled in education or training programs.
Yet, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported an 8.2% unemployment rate for people aged 20–24 in June — over twice the national average. At the same time, the aging US population continues to strain the workforce, with Baby Boomers retiring and fewer replacements in sight.
Why Immigration Still Matters to Economic Growth
Many economists argue that immigration remains essential to economic stability. Stephanie Roth, chief economist at Wolfe Research, warns that deporting millions of undocumented workers could trigger labor shortages and drive up prices. “We need immigration,” Roth said. “Foreign-born workers are critical to the labor force — especially as our population ages.”
Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, echoed that sentiment, stating that “rational immigration policy is vital to the long-term health of the US economy.” He called for comprehensive reform that aligns labor needs across manufacturing, agriculture, hospitality, and household services.
Conclusion: A Risky Path Forward
While Trump’s mass deportation plan may appeal to voters seeking stronger borders, experts warn it could come at a significant economic cost. From reduced productivity and wage losses to higher deficits and labor shortages, the economic impact of Trump’s immigration policy raises serious questions about its long-term viability.
As the debate continues, one thing is clear: Immigration is not just a political issue — it’s a fundamental economic concern that directly affects the livelihoods of millions of American families.
